Carlsbad 2025 Executive Summary

Carlsbad in 2025 was a city where the staff processed housing correctly while the political leadership fought the legal framework that compelled those approvals. Zero housing projects were denied. Every contested vote on housing went unanimous. But the year's most revealing action was not a project vote; it was a 2-3 defeat of a resolution to constitutionally override state housing law, exposing a council split between anti-preemption ambition and reluctant compliance. The city produced housing in 2025 because state law required it, not because its leaders chose to.

Zoning and Density

No affirmative upzoning or density cap removal occurred in 2025. The 16-site rezoning adding 2,998 units of capacity was a January 2024 action to satisfy Housing Element requirements, not a 2025 initiative.

Council moved in the opposite direction on process. It amended CEQA exemption authority from staff to elected officials, a change staff explicitly flagged as a Housing Accountability Act compliance risk. This shifts environmental review decisions from technical staff to political actors, expanding discretionary chokepoints for future projects.

The city's Growth Management Plan caps were exceeded in multiple quadrants. Staff acknowledged these are preempted by SB 330 (the Housing Crisis Act), meaning Carlsbad cannot enforce its own growth caps but has not repealed them. The caps remain on the books as an aspirational ceiling the city would reimpose if state law allowed.

The Traffic Safety & Mobility Commission stripped Multimodal Level-of-Service metrics from the Growth Management Circulation Report (passing the stripped version 4-1 after rejecting the complete version 2-3). Removing pedestrian, bike, and transit performance data from growth management monitoring means infrastructure adequacy is measured solely by car throughput, systematically understating the multimodal capacity that supports denser development.

No changes to parking minimums, inclusionary rates, or fee structures beyond routine CPI indexing. The Master Fee Schedule set affordable housing impact fees at $2,925 per unit and single-family in-lieu fees at $10,231 per unit.

Development Pipeline

Staff projects 199 units permitted for FY 2025-26 and a five-year average of 514 units per year, with Carlsbad over 90% built out.

Every housing project that reached a hearing body was approved. The Planning Commission processed approximately 157 units with 21 deed-restricted affordable, all approved. Major entitled projects: Carlsbad Village Mixed Use (218 units, 27 very-low-income, 50% density bonus), Hope Apartments (156 units, 20 affordable), Marja Acres (130+ single-family attached with 47-unit senior affordable component), FPC Residential (86 units, 12 low-income), Flats at Terramar (98-unit hotel conversion, 15 affordable), and The Roosevelt (23 mixed-use units, 100% density bonus with 8 waivers). Jefferson Street saw three infill projects totaling 28 units, all replacing single-family homes on correctly zoned R-3 land.

Two projects invoked AB 2097 transit proximity parking exemptions: The Roosevelt (near Carlsbad Village Station) and BLVD Beach Commercial. Both signal market-driven parking reduction near transit, though BLVD Beach was commercial-only despite V-R zoning that allows 18-23 du/ac.

A critical leading indicator: zero streamlining applications were filed under SB 423, SB 9, AB 2011, or SB 6. Developers are not using by-right pathways in Carlsbad. This could reflect adequate standard entitlement processing or could indicate that Carlsbad's zoning does not create sites where streamlining tools are advantageous. Either way, the tools designed to bypass local discretion are going unused.

57 ADU permits were issued, with 67 completions in 2024. The Planning Commission forwarded a comprehensive ADU code update aligning with SB 477, SB 1211, and AB 2533 (up to 8 detached ADUs on multifamily lots, by-right ADUs exempt from objective design standards).

Tenant Protections

No tenant protection measures appeared in any body's 2025 record. No rent stabilization, no relocation assistance, no just-cause eviction protections were proposed, debated, or adopted.

State Mandate Compliance

RHNA progress (6th Cycle, 3,873 units): 1,297 permitted (33.5%). Severe lower-income shortfall: very-low-income at 7.2% (94 of 1,311), extremely low-income at 1.1% (7 of 656). Above-moderate at 68%. Carlsbad is building market-rate housing and falling catastrophically short on affordable.

The Our Neighborhood Voices resolution is the year's defining vote. Council Member Burkholder pushed a resolution supporting this ballot initiative to constitutionally override state housing law by elevating local zoning authority above conflicting state statutes. Mayor Blackburn seconded. The motion failed 2-3, with Mayor Pro Tem Bhat-Patel, Acosta, and Shin voting no. Two of five council members actively sought to dismantle the legal framework that produces Carlsbad's housing approvals.

The city's legislative platform is openly hostile to state mandates. It opposes SB 79 (transit-area density), seeks to restrict density bonus waivers, and supports local zoning "overriding conflicting state law." Lobbyist California Public Policy Group actively works Sacramento on these positions. The Housing Agency's sole 2025 meeting featured outside counsel presenting state housing law as a threat to manage, with Builder's Remedy framed as the consequence of noncompliance rather than the remedy for underproduction.

Housing Supply: Projects Voted On

Most approvals were legally compelled. Projects invoking density bonus law, HAA, or SB 330 vesting left the council and commission little discretion to deny. Staff consistently cited these constraints in reports. Compliance is not the same as leadership.

Affordable Housing Finance

Housing Trust Fund: $11.6M balance, $22M in outstanding loans, supporting nearly half of Carlsbad's approximately 2,600 affordable units. The Housing Commission approved an additional $500,000 HTF loan for West Oaks Apartments (42 affordable units, total HTF commitment now $2M), voted 4-0-1 (Collins moved, Vice-Chair Horton seconded; Chang, Horton, Collins, Berger voted yes).

West Oaks total development cost rose from $16.9M (2021) to $20.8M (23.5% increase). The project is on hold pending sewer capacity. Chestnut Apartments (16-unit senior complex) required $500K in emergency repairs after operator failure. La Posada de Guadalupe shelter expansion (women and families) stalled after the state refused demolition consent and San Diego County rescinded $2M in funding.

Housing Choice Vouchers serve 635 households ($16.8M budget). Homelessness spending: $9.1M+ combined for FY 2025-26, including a $2.99M state grant targeting vehicular homelessness (up 93% from 2023) and an $11.4M state grant for SR-78 corridor encampment-to-housing transition.

Infrastructure and Budget

Sewer capacity is the binding constraint on housing production. Council authorized $5M for Poinsettia Lane sewer replacement and $4.97M for Bressi improvements, both serving Housing Element sites. Jefferson Street Homes building permits are held until an 8-inch sewer main is upsized.

Utility rates are rising sharply: approximately 30% for water, 14% per year for wastewater. Burkholder cast the sole dissent on rate increases (4-1). The five-year CIP totals $467M. The Infrastructure Replacement Fund projects a $12.1M deficit by FY 2029-30. The city holds a $945M investment portfolio.

The Traffic Commission voted 4-1 to recommend against the Tyler Street Complete Streets Study, killing a walkability improvement in the Barrio, Carlsbad's most urbanized and development-ready neighborhood. Only Commissioner Penseyres voted to keep it alive. Two prior motions (full project and modified version) both failed 2-3, with Coelho, Newlands, and Kohl blocking.

Council Member Patterns

Burkholder is the council's most visible anti-housing-framework member. He pushed the Our Neighborhood Voices resolution, dissented alone on utility rate increases that fund housing-enabling infrastructure, and directed intergovernmental affairs to pursue Mills Act historic preservation at Planning Commissioner Lafferty's request. His votes target the structural framework (state preemption, infrastructure funding) rather than individual projects.

Blackburn seconded the Our Neighborhood Voices resolution, aligning with Burkholder on the year's most significant structural vote.

Bhat-Patel, Acosta, and Shin formed the majority blocking the anti-preemption resolution. But this bloc initiated no proactive pro-housing policy: no upzoning, no parking reform, no tenant protections, no streamlining. Their posture is defensive compliance, preserving Carlsbad's Housing Element certification to avoid Builder's Remedy exposure. Acosta seconded Ordinance CS-496 (subject unspecified in available records).

Planning Commissioner Lafferty was the sole dissenter on two housing projects (both Jefferson Street, 6-1) and the BLVD Beach commercial project (5-1), framing opposition around infrastructure and health concerns rather than explicit anti-density arguments.

Bottom line: All City Council housing project votes were unanimous (5-0). The structural votes are where positions diverge, and they reveal more about each member's housing stance than any project vote could. Carlsbad in 2025 produced housing because state law required it. Two of five council members would undo that requirement if they could. The other three defend the status quo not out of conviction but out of fear of Builder's Remedy. No one on this council is leading on housing.