How Carlsbad Failed to not Grow

Carlsbad filed 813 housing units in 2025, more than any year on record. In 2023, zero large multifamily projects were filed. The gap between those two numbers is a story about what happens when state law collides with local growth caps.

2023: zero large multifamily filings. The year Carlsbad certified its Housing Element but was still internally debating whether its Growth Management Plan caps were legal. Developers read the political signals and went elsewhere. ADU filings (76) filled the gap because ADUs are ministerial and bypass discretionary review entirely. The 222 "Other" units are almost entirely one project: Carlsbad Village Mixed Use at 218 units, categorized as "MH" in APR data.

2025: 813 units filed, 683 of them 5+ unit projects. The dam broke. After the council's 3-2 vote in November 2024 to formally preempt the growth caps, large projects started filing: Fairfield Bressi Ranch (320 units), North County Plaza (240 units), Inns of America conversion (98 units). This is the largest filing year in the APR dataset.

ADUs are the constant. ADU filings grew from 6 (2018) to 105 (2024) regardless of what the council did about multifamily. ADUs bypass the growth caps entirely because they're ministerial under state law. They're the pressure valve that works when discretionary approvals are blocked.

Only 12 density bonus projects in the entire dataset. Density bonus is the primary state tool for getting above base zoning. Carlsbad's low usage rate (2.4% of filings) suggests developers either don't need it or avoid the additional scrutiny. The Fairfield project needs 5 waivers to build at density bonus levels. That friction is real.

What Blocked It: The Growth Management Plan

The filing pattern above didn't happen by accident. Carlsbad's Growth Management Plan imposed voter-approved caps on dwelling units per zone, with automatic moratoriums triggered by traffic. When a zone's traffic exceeded standards, new housing stopped.

SB 330 (Housing Crisis Act of 2019) preempted it. HCD told Carlsbad in April 2020 that the moratorium was illegal. The city kept litigating the question internally for four years.

HCD's language was unambiguous:

The housing moratorium adopted pursuant to the city's GMP would be impermissible under Government Code Section 66300.

Taking actions to prohibit, even temporarily, multifamily development is viewed as a serious constraint and contrary to planning and zoning law.

HCD does not consider that general concerns about the health and welfare of the citizenry, including traffic conditions that cause minor delays, present an imminent threat to health and safety.

The moratorium had precluded multifamily development on over two-thirds (640 units) of identified capacity for lower-income households.

Permits vs. Filings

Application filings show intent. Building permits show what actually gets built. The two tell different stories.

The Pattern

Carlsbad's resistance to housing is structural, not theatrical. No council member gives fiery anti-housing speeches. Instead:

The GMP imposed automatic moratoriums that blocked 640 units of lower-income housing capacity. When HCD said the moratorium was illegal (2020), the city took four years to formally acknowledge it (2024), and even then two council members voted to keep the caps.

The Legislative Subcommittee systematically opposes state housing bills, most recently AB 1751 (Missing Middle) and AB 956 (ADU reform), using the "Equitable Land Use Alliance" lobby group as an advisory input.

The permitting process requires multiple waivers for projects building at the density state law permits. The Fairfield project (320 units) needs 5 waivers. Staff correctly quotes the legal standard ("a waiver may only be denied based on an objective health or safety impact"), but requiring 5 waivers to build at legal density IS the friction.

The result is a city that approves housing it's legally required to approve while systematically constraining everything above the legal floor. It's not crude denial. It's sophisticated constraint.

Methodology

Data: HCD Annual Progress Report Table A (2018-2025), 691 City of Carlsbad meeting records from yimby.watchdog (2012-2026). APR captures all unit types including ministerial (ADUs, by-right). 2026 APR filings not available until April 2027. Meeting records filtered by agency field (City of Carlsbad only); regional bodies (SANDAG, NCTD, County) excluded.