Fact-Checking Two Coast News Housing Op-Eds

A data-driven review of claims in "More Housing, Fewer Homeowners" (Sheila Cameron, Aug 25) and "Affordable Housing at What Cost?" (Felicia Gamez-Weinbaum, Aug 24), using HCD Annual Progress Report filings, municipal meeting records, and local planning data.

Sources: HCD APR Table A (2018-2025), Oceanside/Encinitas meeting records, SANDAG Regional Planning data

Piece 1: "More Housing, Fewer Homeowners" (Cameron)

Sheila Cameron, former mayor of Encinitas, argues that current housing policy produces rental units instead of homeownership opportunities. She advocates for 25-50% inclusionary requirements and restoration of "local control" through the Our Neighborhood Voices ballot initiative.

On inclusionary requirements

Claim: Cameron states that citizen activists advocated for 25% affordable requirements and the Planning Commission recommended 50%, but council rejected it. She frames this as a failure of political will.

Data: When Oceanside's Planning Commission compared inclusionary ordinances across North San Diego County (July 2022), every jurisdiction set rates between 10-15%: Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar, San Marcos, Poway, Vista, and Escondido. A 50% set-aside exceeds any comparable city in California. At that rate, projects require massive public subsidy to pencil. No developer builds at 50% affordable without gap financing that doesn't exist at scale. The practical effect of a 50% requirement is that nothing gets built.

On local control and production

Claim: Cameron hopes the "Our Neighborhood Voices" initiative will restore local zoning authority, and opposes SB 9 and SB 10 for removing local control.

Data: Encinitas is the test case for what "local control" of housing policy produces. Under Proposition A (2013), the city required voter approval for any upzoning. The result is visible in HCD Annual Progress Report filings:

Year	Units Filed (Encinitas)
2018	17
2019	16
2020	291
2021	1,791
2022	1,077
2023	1,172
2024	542

Source: HCD APR Table A, application submit date, City of Encinitas

The city was sued for failing to adopt a state-compliant housing element for over two decades. Production went from 17 units per year under local control to over 1,000 per year after state intervention. Our Neighborhood Voices failed to qualify for the 2024 ballot. There is no evidence it has qualified for 2028.

On rental vs. ownership

Claim: Cameron argues new affordable units are exclusively rental, creating "more gerbil in the cage leasing and renting, not opportunities for ownership."

Data: Multiple recent Encinitas projects include for-sale units. The 5-unit condo project at 513 N. Freeman Street (approved 2020) is for-sale ownership housing. Townhome subdivisions are ownership by definition. The broader issue Cameron does not address: Encinitas median home prices are approximately $1.6-1.8M. At that price point, homeownership is already inaccessible to the families she claims to advocate for. Building nothing does not create homeowners. It preserves existing equity.

Piece 2: "Affordable Housing at What Cost?" (Gamez-Weinbaum)

Felicia Gamez-Weinbaum, a real estate broker who served on Encinitas's Affordable Housing Task Force, argues that increasing density and supply does not produce affordability in high-cost coastal areas. She cites Encinitas's Solaris development (2,000 applicants for 21 affordable units) and suggests ADUs as an alternative approach.

On the Solaris waitlist

Claim: At Solaris (140 units, 21 affordable), approximately 2,000 people applied for 21 affordable units. Gamez-Weinbaum presents this as evidence that the current approach is failing.

Data: A 95:1 rejection rate means 1,979 families who need affordable housing in Encinitas were turned away from a single project. This is an argument for more supply, not less. If the city had ten projects like Solaris instead of one, 210 families would have housing instead of 21. The waitlist is a direct measure of unmet demand created by decades of underbuilding.

On density and land cost

Claim: "Land in coastal communities like Encinitas is scarce and expensive" and density "merely spreads costs across more units without eliminating underlying expenses."

Data: Spreading land cost across more units is exactly how per-unit cost decreases. If a half-acre parcel costs $5M, building 5 units puts $1M of land cost into each unit. Building 50 units puts $100K of land cost into each unit. This is the basic arithmetic of housing development in expensive markets. Density does not eliminate land cost; it makes per-unit land cost survivable. That is the mechanism, not a limitation of it.

On ADUs as an alternative

Claim: Gamez-Weinbaum suggests ADUs and JADUs as a more appropriate incremental approach to housing, while noting they lack deed-restricted affordability.

Data: Encinitas ADU filings went from 6 in 2020 to 69 in 2023 to 159 in 2024 (HCD APR data). ADUs are growing precisely because state law (AB 68, AB 881, SB 13) made them by-right with no discretionary review, no public hearing, and limited local authority to deny. They are density added at the parcel level through exactly the kind of state mandate the rest of the op-ed opposes. And as the author notes, they carry no affordability guarantee.

On AMI thresholds

Claim: San Diego County's "Low Income" threshold of $97,950 for individuals is misleadingly high, suggesting relatively affluent households qualify as low-income.

Data: HUD income thresholds are derived from Area Median Income by formula. San Diego County's median household income is approximately $95,000. The thresholds reflect local cost of living, not a policy choice. Someone earning $98K in San Diego has comparable purchasing power to someone earning roughly $45K in a median-cost metro. The thresholds are not misleading; they are mathematically calibrated to the local economy.

Regional context

Housing production varies enormously across North San Diego County. The differences correspond to local policy choices, not to differences in land cost or geography.

City	Units Filed 2018-2025
Vista	17,188
Oceanside	12,930
San Marcos	4,996
Encinitas	5,064
Carlsbad	2,884

Source: HCD APR Table A, all unit types, application submit date

San Marcos, a comparable-sized city in the same county, has 3,400 deed-restricted affordable housing units across 34 developments, primarily funded through its former Redevelopment Agency (SANDAG Regional Planning Committee, May 2026). San Marcos chose to build affordable housing. Encinitas produced 33 total units in 2018-2019 combined.

Summary

Both op-eds frame housing production as a problem. The data tells a different story. Encinitas's own Solaris project drew 2,000 applicants for 21 affordable units, a 95:1 rejection rate that quantifies exactly how much unmet demand local housing restrictions have created. The city built 17 units in 2018 under local control and over 1,000 per year after state intervention. Neighboring San Marcos built 3,400 deed-restricted affordable units through proactive local policy. Higher inclusionary requirements without funding to match them do not produce more affordable housing. They produce less housing of all types. The question is not whether Encinitas should build, but how quickly it can close the gap that decades of underbuilding created.